The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 2 February, 2026

Norway Bases New Long-Range Missile Battalion in Bardufoss, Northern Norway

The Barents Observer revealed on February 2 that the Norwegian government plans to base its new missile battalion in Bardufoss, some 300km inside the Arctic Circle. The country will invest NOK 19 billion (€1.65 billion) to acquire the South Korean Chunmoo missile system manufactured by Hanwha. The procurement of this long-range precision missile system includes 16 mobile launchers, missiles, training, logistics, and support systems. The battalion will employ about 750 personnel, and the missiles have a reported range of up to 500 kilometers. (The Barents Observer)

Take 1: Norway’s NOK 19 billion (€1.65 billion) investment in the Chunmoo system, combined with the deployment of a large number of personnel, illustrates its determination to strengthen deterrence along its northern flank. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, military planning across the Arctic has risen to the center of attention. In recent years, Russia has significantly expanded and modernized its Arctic military presence, including by reopening Soviet-era bases, enhancing its air and missile defenses, and reinforcing the Northern Fleet, which remains central to its nuclear deterrent. Against this backdrop, Norway’s move aligns closely with evolving NATO priorities in the region. Allied states have repeatedly stressed the need for a more coordinated and visible presence in the High North. To address this, NATO recently announced plans for an Arctic Sentry mission, modelled after two similar NATO initiatives (Baltic Sentry, in response to undersea cable sabotage, and Eastern Sentry, aimed at countering hostile Russian drone activity). Arctic Sentry is set to focus on surveillance, deterrence, and rapid response across Arctic maritime and air domains. Importantly, such initiatives highlight how NATO’s approach in the High North is becoming increasingly structured and operational, moving beyond periodic exercises towards standing missions. Norway, sharing a direct Arctic land border with Russia, occupies a central role in this strategy. Overall, by investing in long-range precision capabilities, Norway is not only enhancing its national defense but also reinforcing NATO’s regional posture. (Euronews, The Arctic Institute, The Barents Observer, VOCO News)

Canada Opens New Consulate in Greenland to Strengthen Arctic Ties

As reported by Eye on the Arctic on February 3, Canada is set to open a new consulate in Greenland this week. Speaking in Tromsø, Canada’s Governor General Mary Simon stated that the opening of the consulate emphasizes Canada’s long-standing relationship with Greenland and Denmark and seeks to strengthen Arctic cooperation. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 2: Canada’s decision to open a consulate in Nuuk signals increased Canadian support amid heightened political sensitivity surrounding the future of Greenland. Governor General Mary Simon has framed the move as a way to deepen Canadian ties with Greenland and Denmark while reinforcing people-to-people connections between Inuit communities across borders. While Canada has already explicitly affirmed its support for Denmark and Greenland, the establishment of a permanent diplomatic presence helps translate this message into action and further strengthens allied support for Greenland’s sovereignty and stability. Other European partners have taken similar steps to reinforce their presence in Greenland and underline Western cohesion. The European Union opened a permanent office in Nuuk in 2024, aimed at strengthening political dialogue, economic cooperation, and engagement with Greenland’s society. In 2025, France also announced plans to open a consulate in Greenland, with its opening scheduled in the coming days. French officials have explicitly indicated that the reasoning behind this diplomatic mission is to counter US President Trump’s “expansionist ambitions.. European and Canadian stakeholders are thus coordinating their messaging on regional security and governance. Furthermore, joint statements issued by several Nordic and European countries in early 2026 emphasized the Arctic as an area of shared responsibility and cooperation, implicitly countering external pressure or unfounded unilateral ambitions. The opening of Canada’s Greenland consulate can thus be considered part of a wider effort to reinforce the rules-based order in the Arctic and signal that Greenland’s future should be shaped through cooperation and consent. (CTV News, Eye on the Arctic, Politico)

Expiry of New START Treaty Sparks Concern Over Russian Nuclear Buildup Near Norway

Arctic Today reported on February 1 that Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre warned that Russia may increase its development of nuclear weapons in the Arctic as the New START Treaty between the United States and Russia expires on February 5. The treaty, signed in 2010, limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads and allowed on-site inspections. With its expiration, there will be no legally binding limits or inspection regime to monitor and limit the development of nuclear arms. (The Barents Observer)

Take 3: The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (or New START Treaty) marks the end of the last legally binding nuclear arms control agreement between Russia and the United States. With New START’s lapse, there are no more binding caps on deployed strategic warheads and no formal inspection regime, raising the prospects for unconstrained nuclear arms competition and additional uncertainty in the High North. Russia’s Northern Fleet, based on the Kola Peninsula, hosts submarines capable of carrying large numbers of nuclear warheads. Without transparency mechanisms, both sides may be tempted to upload more warheads onto existing delivery systems or extend durations of patrols. Beyond geopolitical risk, this also risks additional environmental strain in the region. Today, the Arctic seabed is still laden with Cold War nuclear legacies, including sunken Soviet submarines, dumped reactors, and stored radioactive waste. Research has documented thousands of radioactive containers and decomposing vessels in Arctic waters, which pose long-term contamination risks. Cold War incidents, from underwater nuclear tests to submarine wrecks like the K-278 Komsomolets, demonstrate how radioactive materials can persist in the Arctic for decades, slowly leaching contaminants into water and food webs. These legacies demonstrate that heightened nuclear competition, whether through weapon deployments, storage, or risks of accidents, intersects with deeply rooted ecological hazards unique to polar regions. As we are dealing with two confrontational administrations, in Russia and the US, it remains to be seen how the lapse of the New START Treaty will affect the military landscape in the High North. (Outrider, Reuters, The Barents Observer)

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) Rules Out Arctic Shipping Routes

As reported by High North News on February 2, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) reaffirmed publicly that it will not use the Northern Sea Route for container shipping. CEO Søren Toft said the company views Arctic navigation as unsafe, environmentally risky, and operationally unnecessary. The decision comes amid growing Arctic shipping interest from China and South Korea, and rising traffic along the Northern Sea Route. MSC stated its global fleet can transport cargo reliably without Arctic transits, even during disruptions such as recent Suez Canal closures. (High North News)

Take 4: The Mediterranean Shipping Company’s (MSC) decision to reject Arctic shipping is part of an emerging pattern of corporate and industry restraint in the face of escalating Arctic development pressures. MSC CEO Søren Toft framed the company’s position around safety, environmental protection, and operational irrelevance. Beyond shipping, a notable market restraint has also emerged around fossil fuel extraction in the Arctic. For instance, successive oil lease sales in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska have drawn minimal interest. In the most recent January 2025 auction, the Bureau of Land Management reported no bids from energy companies, mirroring similar lackluster participation in earlier sales. This suggests that risks, reputational concerns, and economic and environmental calculus are deterring industry entry even when government policy seeks to open the Arctic landscape to economic development and exploitation. When Norway approved plans to initiate deep-sea mining in its Arctic waters in 2024, an immense amount of public backlash halted these plans and postponed them until at least 2029. These developments illustrate a tentative but notable shift in extractive and transport sectors. Companies like MSC, CMA-CGM and Hapag-Lloyd are showing greater sensitivity to the risks of Arctic shipping, environmental stewardship, and a willingness to protect local Arctic communities. There is also a greater awareness about the potential costs associated with Arctic economic development. This shows that ambitious exploitation plans in the High North face continuous difficulties in coming to fruition, undermining resource-hungry media rhetoric framing the Arctic as the next flashpoint for extraction. (CBC News, Euronews, Hapag-Lloyd, High North News)

Russia Closes Renowned Arctic Geological Survey Company PMGE After 60 Years

The Barents Observer announced on February 4 that Russia’s Polar Marine Geosurvey Expedition (PMGE) will cease operations on February 12, 2026. Based in St. Petersburg, PMGE has conducted more than 60 years of Arctic surveys and made major discoveries, including mineral deposits in Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, Yakutia, and the New Siberian Islands. The company operated two ageing research vessels, Akademic Aleksandr Karpinsky and Professor Logachev. Financial difficulties, debt linked to vessel upgrades, lack of orders, and budget cuts have contributed to the closure. PMGE is a subsidiary of state-owned Rosgeologia and has been under US sanctions since 2024. (The Barents Observer)

Take 5: The closure of Russia’s Polar Marine Geosurvey Expedition (PMGE) appears part of a broader trend in the Arctic region, as scientific and climate research are increasingly being overshadowed by military prioritization. PMGE’s shutdown marks the end of an institution with decades of experience in Arctic geological and environmental surveying, at a time when scientific data is more critical than ever as the region continues to warm at rapid rates. Sanctions and political isolation have disrupted former long-standing scientific partnerships, thereby creating notable gaps in climate data collection and coverage. The loss of PMGE further compounds these gaps, reducing Russia’s own domestic capacity to conduct systematic marine and geological surveys. This comes at a time when Arctic policy is increasingly securitized, with NATO expansion, increased military exercises, and strategic competition transforming the region into an arena of strategic rivalry. These developments have proven detrimental to climate science. The closure of PMGE is therefore more than an administrative decision; it reflects a political climate in which scientific research is increasingly viewed as expendable, while military posturing gets prioritized. In a rapidly changing Arctic, where environmental changes affect the entire planet, sidelining science in favor of strategic competition risks leaving governments ill-prepared to understand or manage the far-reaching consequences of climate change. (High North News, Nature Climate Change, The Barents Observer)